more snow tuesday nite and this saturday also..

This has been one of the most stubborn snow/rain lines I've ever seen. Even though there was high pressure pushing it southeast, low pressure at the 850mb level has pushed the warmer rain back against it. These are mesoscale (short-range analysis) situations that are impossible to detect until it happens. For this reason, most of SNJ is a rainy bust today. NNJ saw a bit more than the expected but the heaviest axis of snow Philly<->NJTP<->NYC performed exactly as expected. The western edge of precipitation is on its way east which should start wrapping up precipitation by 3PM or so.

This is the first of a train of winter storms this week. Tomorrow night into Wednesday looks like a snow to rain situation with NWNJ having the best chance to stay all snow and SENJ having the best chance to stay all rain. For everyone in-between the changeover process (reverse from today-from south to north) could produce ice in the form of sleet and/or freezing rain.

Then we turn our heads to the weekend. There is still a lot of uncertainty which is why I've chosen to wait until Wednesday 12Z model suite to start confident analysis. Radar image reproduced from Penn State University's EWALL site.