I have had excellent results with Paypal refunds. You must however file a dispute with Paypal within 45 days of the original transaction. So you must file ASAP. The transaction between the seller and UPS is not part of the Paypal transaction. Don't waste your time with the seller. Paypal (which is actually owned by eBay) will refund direct to your Paypal account. When you type in your explanation at Paypal show the UPS tracking number so they can verify it was lost. Also go back to the original auction listing and see how much the Paypal transaction was guaranteed for with this seller. If it's a new seller they only insure up to $200. If they are an established seller their transactions are insured up to $2000.