I doubt it, Ian. Soon enough the generation that grew up on WS's and synths will be the older bunch, and they sure as hell won't be buying arrangers. Not unless the manufacturers wake up and cross pollinate the lines, anyway.

Something has got to change, it seems all too apparent, anyway. Are you trying to tell me that arranger sales are as good as they were ten years ago?

There came a point in the history of home organs that they got too expensive for most people, due to volume drop (more you make, the cheaper you can sell 'em!), arrangers took over for the 'home organ' crowd, and WS's and synths devastated the pro sales. All that is left is a pittance of what the industry used to be. And yes, the TOTL suffered first, but the rest followed after.

But I believe that arrangers won't last forever. It's becoming obvious that the keyboard manufacturers are falling over themselves trying to NOT bring modern WS technology to arrangers, to NOT bring modern styles and synth capabilities to arrangers, and seem happy to just pander to the diminishing numbers that DO want a quality arranger. All that is left is the low end, and the toy gift ones. They'll probably never go away completely, but as soon as the WS generation gets a bit older, you can bet arranger sales at the high end will plummet (I bet they already are).

Unless someone reinvigorate what playing an arranger is all about (Ketron are trying, bless them, but it seems technology needs to gain a step or two), they will be no relevant than a home organ. You can't play 80's music on a home organ and you can't play 21st c. music on an arranger. Not unless they change drastically, anyway...

The TOTL arranger buyer is generally older (over 40 at least), and has the time and the money to afford a hobby like arranger playing.

It will always be that way for TOTL and to a lesser extent, MOTL.

And, the manufacturers (at least the ones that still make the TOTL/MOTL) are changing...incrementally, but changing just enough to keep up with the new crop of TOTL/MOTL buyers.

You are considering the arranger as a tool...most buyers treat it as a hobby and it's a luxury item for them.

I'm pretty sure I'm selling more arrangers than several years ago, but perhaps all the clinics and demos are helping...people will buy if they know there will be a follow-up, and also, you have to present the arranger properly; most salespeople don't know how to sell an arranger, so it's up to the manufacturer to present their products in the best light...hence the clinician/demonstrator.

By the time the next generation will be in the position to buy a TOTL arranger, the product will have evolved to meet their wants....that's also the value of incremental changes.

You like major changes before you buy...you represent a tiny portion of the arranger buying public...remember, it's a home product first, and a tool for some of us, second...a far second at that.

I think arrangers will continue to be made for some time...the entry level ones are still geared for the target buyer I mentioned above; just the older buyer with less to spend...young people don't buy arrangers, and most likely, never will...they aren't cool. When they get older, cool won't matter as much.

Arrangers don't have to be cool...they just need to change incrementally to suit the target buyer, and so far, they've been doing just fine.

Think of this. You were in your 40's (or older) before you started using an arranger...that's the target market.


Ian

[This message has been edited by ianmcnll (edited 01-19-2010).]

The only thing that is keeping top model "arranger workstations" from being on top of the sale charts....is education..

I know first hand...the vast majority of "pro" players..do not have a clue the value a TOP of the line arranger board..can be for them...Some folks are just snobs (totally their loss)..others have misconceptions about today's arrangers...and the vast majority, don't realize they exist..

We are talking about a retail industry..that sales people in large retail music stores...know nothing about arranger keyboards..so how are the working "pros" going to be educated..

It always amazes me....when I see talented "pros" that struggle to make music with "workstations, or pianos"..and are clueless how benefiting a top model "arranger" could improve the caliber of their performance...I am not even talking about full "Style " play..I am talking about the convenience, and choices that a top arranger allows a player..

I posted an example the other day...saying I was going to set of multiple keyboards on the job...like the "good old days"...and true the result could be obtained ..easily by a single top arranger...

I have seen countless times at our Musicians club here in the Philadelphia area..where some members try to show the great benefits of arrangers, or harmonizers, or new designed PA's.....Most Pros, are just comfortable in their uneducated world...and this problem is the lack of sales we see now...

The reason I keep mentioning top models..I believe the quality of top models, helps lower the concessions that most pros would miss on lessor models..like quality built, better keybeds and key bed range...and less short cuts to get around on the board..

Not very often I agree with you Fran, but you're right. My PSR-S910 takes the place of several "pro" keyboards, drum machine, bass pedals, sequencers, four effects processors...at one time, I was surrounded by gear; now all I need is a Yamaha PSR-S910, a 25 lb arranger, that easily rivals any TOTL made today.

I, for one, do do not miss the maintenance, the need to always own a van or truck, the multiple trips back and forth to the latter, as well as the reliability issues of older gear that I never have to deal with with my arranger.

I still think a TOTL/MOTL arranger is the best kind of instrument for my gigs, and especially so with instruments like the Tyros4 or S910, that easily sound as good or better than any workstation or synth/piano/organ of yesterday or today.

Ian

I've got a 15 year old Alesis drum machine that completely blows away the S910 for punch and impact, live. The trouble is, most of these arrangers are designed for hobbyists, sitting at home in their living room, noodling away with next to no skill or experience (sorry, all of you that DON'T fit that, but it's true, IMO), and most of them don't have a CLUE what is needed to impress a pro.

Pro's come from LIVE MUSIC backgrounds, and want something that approximates that experience for them and their audiences. Although today's MOTL and BOTL arrangers, especially the market leaders, are marvels of integration, most of them have a LONG way to go before they even sound as good as stuff from the eighties and nineties that was DESIGNED for pros... not hobbyists.

BTW, I remember from my home organ sales days, those things were bought and held on to for a VERY long time. Nobody that just took playing the organ as a hobby traded around every couple of years or so. They bought them like they bought pianos. A once in a lifetime purchase. I have a suspicion that many of today's hobbyists that bang down $3500-4500 for a TOTL arranger aren't looking to replace it in a couple of years... especially as how little gets added to it in that period.

Yes, the old Alesis blows away the drums in the G-70 and many other older arrangers as well...but, you wouldn't use one live...the G-70 (and S910) are much easier to use...you yourself said the arranger was far better for live work...and, it's not much of compromise, considering all the other features the arranger brings to the table like bass-lines, fills when we want them, and the ability to play SMF (if you need them)

The sounds in the S910, and to a lesser extant, G-70, are far better than the DX-7's, D-50/70, and M1's from the 80's and 90's....gee, the effects processors alone, are light years ahead.

I've got patches on my Tyros3 that easily rival any Motif.

Arrangers have far better or, at the very least, equally good, sound-sets than many synthesizers, and some, like the Korg PA, have editing every bit as extensive, or more.

Home organs were actually played by the user, using bass pedals, and a simplified drum machine...new rhythms and features weren't that important...you tended to keep the instrument for some time...like a piano.

Arrangers do all the work, and therefore people tend to trade up to get the latest and greatest unit to do the all the work even better than the last one.

A lot of my arranger buyers never played organ...they did play, however; most times it was piano that ceased once they were married and had small kids, and they no longer had the time...some used to play in their local bands, but again their careers and/marriages changed their priorities.

That's why a lot of arranger buyers are older...they have the money and the time...families are grown up, and they can now partake of a hobby they had little time or money for before.

That's been my experience, and I've been doing this stuff(including teaching) for close to 30 years now.

Ian

Not unless you LET them do all the work...

And, as little as most model upgrades offer, why anyone would bother beats me. 'Even better' ought to be 'slightly better', IMO. And why anyone trades around a $4.5k arranger for a few new styles and a couple of new sounds (and probably loses $1000 in the process) is sheer insanity.

But let's take this forum, for example. How many members we got, posting with any regularity (even once a month)? Just a few. How many arrangers sold? Thousands, tens of thousands, yearly (globally). We are the tip of the spear, the fanatical few. I don't think there is nearly as much upgrade fever as this forum would lead one to believe. For every customer you see every new product release, how many more do you NEVER see again?

Sanity is far more common than we would like to admit, I believe...

I have quite a few customers/clients that call me or email me and want to know when the next new one will be out, and these people are players, not amateur hobbyists.

Of course there are some who buy once, and get nothing new for years, but, if someone is using their arranger often, they are more than likely to want "new" after three or four years.

If it is presented well enough, and the perceived value is high enough and shown to be there, people will buy...that's the value of proper in store demos and clinics.

Certainly, there are enough new and repeat buyers to go around and keep Yamaha in business regarding TOTL and MOTL arrangers...I think the latter's idea of incremental changes is working...we may not always agree with it, but we can't deny it's success.

Ian