I've often compared arrangers to 'home organs'. Nobody EVER thought that they would end up as a rare niche product either, back in their heyday. But technology moves on, music tastes move on, players' needs move on, and then the manufacturers move on.

When the capabilities of some of the TOTL arrangers FAR exceed the needs of probably 90% of their users, you get to a saturation point. Other than the die-hard few here at SZ (and we don't represent even a TINY fraction of the entire arranger buying public), few TOTL arranger buyers are EVER going to need another arranger...

So what happens to TOTL sales, now? Same thing that happened to home organs, IMO. Gradually, all the major players left the arena or downsized the division, while they moved on to what WAS selling profitably...

I think we are actually seeing what is 'next' on the horizon, but no company can get it right with current technology. The audio loop stuff from Ketron IS groundbreaking, but it really needs computer horsepower a bit beyond (maybe four-five years on) to be able to do all that it needs. And ditto with VSTi integration. That needs horsepower so overpowering that you never have to even THINK about the CPU's capabilities, along with a front end that is designed to make their use as easy as a closed arranger.

And they all need to be at a price point that is LESS than current TOTL's, not 25%+ MORE!

Home organ users got older, grayer, and tighter with their retirement dollar. And, other than maybe a few vocal segments here at SZ, I think the same thing is happening to arranger players. I'm probably one of the more forward looking arranger users, and even I could live pretty contentedly with what I have, should the need arise!

Cherish those current models, everyone... You never know when the ride will stop (or at least, slow down under our expectations). Technics players, YOU know what I'm talking about, don't you?

I'm pretty sure we'll see new TOTL and MOTL arrangers from Korg, and Yamaha, and quite possibly Casio(mid-range at least), so it is mainly Roland's lack of new technology to put in their high-end arrangers that's keeping them out of that segment.

Another re-iteration of the E-80 or G-70 won't sell any better than the originals...even the Prelude and GW-8 are having a tough time competing with Yamaha and Casio for entry/mid level instruments, a market segment the latter two have dominated for quite some time.

A PSR-S710 has far more features than a Prelude, for very little more money.

Ian

We saw the survivors of the home organ attrition bring out new product, Ian, as the market slowly collapsed, but slower and gradually pricier as the transition to synths and then WS's progressed. Sure, at the beginning, things didn't look THAT bad. First one manufacturer, then another got out of the business, or stopped making TOTL's (I WAS commenting about the TOTL sector, primarily, Ian... the low end will always survive because of the 'toy' end of the scale), but others continued, those with the 'edge', those with the best sales teams, etc..

But gradually, even they withered until the home organ market is where it is now. And NO-ONE, back in say the mid sixties to early seventies ever thought they would be here.

I just see a fair degree of correlation, for almost the same reasons. Once a product is primarily used by the elderly, what is left but attrition? Once a product ignores current musical trends, what is left but attrition? Once the cost of a product rises, rather than falls due to sales volume, what is left other than attrition?

The low and maybe mid end will keep going, and who knows? Roland may find something new that puts them back where they were, but at the high end, I see little but stagnation and attrition. First Technics, now (apparently) Roland and Wersi (who know more about the death of the home organ than any of us!), who's next? Ketron? Then Korg, and maybe finally Yamaha?

There wasn't a Wurlitzer salesman in the sixties and seventies that didn't think like you... How could this POSSIBLY ever end?

Most of Tyros buyers are in their 50's, with a fair amount in their 60's and over...they have the time and the money for higher end arrangers, and they are the ones who tend to be on the forums, and who are the most vocal.

Most of my S910 users tend to be younger, and more than a few also play guitar or another instrument.

I have to keep track of these things, as it helps me gear my clinics a certain way.

The biggest problem we all have, is competition from other kinds of media.

Maybe the arrangers as we know them will die out and be replaced with some other kind of keyboard instrument, just like the organ was replaced by the portable keyboard.

I hope Roland get back into it, as competition benefits us users, and it's nice to see how far these instruments can be developed.

I do know the Prelude and GW-8 are off to a very slow start, according to what I've been hearing in the stores...and, I do know the PSR-S910 is selling very well, at least in my district...the Tyros3 is still doing pretty good too, but a bit slower since the introduction of the S910.

I still think Casio will be the one to watch this year.


Ian

Today's medium priced arrangers blow away the totl arrangers from must a few years ago.
I could get by very nicely with a PSR 900, Midjay, or Roland E50 for the rest of my career (MAYBE 10 years, probably less). But I don't want to. I NEED new STUFF!
I don't know anyone, even musicians (maybe especially musicians) under the age of 50 that even knows what an arranger is, except a few on this forum.
DonM

I think the GW-8 and Preludes both need a style editing update, to be honest. Yes, you can get them sounding VERY punchy, but still even and smooth, if you edit the styles, but OOTB, I just think they sound a little rough. I have felt for quite a while that whoever was responsible for making the soundsets and styles for Roland arrangers has long left the company. And whatever is coming out now just sounds rushed and poorly beta or market tested. It's not that the arrangers themselves are intrinsically bad, but they do need editing to sound their best, and some of the features that help them stand out don't arrive until OS2, by which time, most people have already made their minds up.

If the GW-8 shipped from the start with OS2, and if sufficient attention had been payed to making the ROM style balances better, who knows where they would be now?

But Roland always seem a little too late to the party, these days.

BTW, Ian... "Most of Tyros buyers are in their 50's, with a fair amount in their 60's and over..." means in ten years, most will be over sixty, with a fair number in their seventies, and ten years ago, most were in their forties with a fair number in their fifties. Now, I'm pretty sure you are starting to feel what the difference in needs and attitudes and spending habits forty year olds and sixty year olds have

I'm just saying... How many TOTL organs are sold each year compared to 1970? A tiny fraction. How are arrangers going to fare any differently, if they don't completely change into something younger players (in the majority) want to play? There are still kids in their teens playing home organs too, you know. Just not very many! An industry can't survive on a few diehard fanatics.

Arranger buyers will always be the older bunch...there's lots of new buyers getting older...the companies adjust for that by adding new styles and features.

The organs were phased out because they were seriously outclassed by portable keyboards. I was teaching Electone at the time the new PS series came out....I was right in the middle of the changes.

In only a few years, they took over, and when Roland came out with the E-series, everything went crazy.

My average Tyros buyer is 55...I keep track; it's part of my job.

I agree with DonM in that there is little need to use a TOTL arranger anymore...the mid-line models have everything you need, and this way, it doesn't cost all that much to remain current with the latest technology.

The mid-range is where the profits are, and the Prelude and GW-8 need a few more features to get there, and be competitive...maybe they can add much with the OS...maybe not.


Ian

Youngsters are into downloaded music these days, and arranger manufactures are adapting by providing MP3 players/recorders on their boards.
Another thing is video, which is also all the rage, and some arranger manufactures are also staring to incorporate this.
Roland is probably the most advanced today, as they have developed VIMA which has everything the youngsters want, combined with a musical instrument; all they need to do now is bring out more entry level models that youngsters can afford.
As to a Roland arranger, then when the market improves I am sure we will see one, however it will probably be the last (Or last but one) before they disappear to be replaced by VIMA.
New Roland sound engines will also most likely start to be based around their sound modelling technology.
The above is OMO of course and could be wrong, so we will just have to wait and see what the future brings

Bill

Since when has ANY arranger been "current with the latest technology"? I'm not including Mediastation as I don't consider them to be mass marketed. Most arrangers, BOTL, MOTL, OR TOTL, are at least 4-5 years behind their state-of-the-art computer counterparts. Computer hardware can advance without waiting for the software to catch up, arrangers can't.

chas

I should have re-phrased that Chas...I meant that if you had a mid-priced, mid-line arranger, it would be easier for a person to change, or trade up every three years or so, and therefore get the newest sound and style engines, or improved screens, user interface, and other features that trickle down from the TOTL models.

In fact, many new things for arranger, were introduced on the PSR mid range for the last several years...USB to device was on the PSR-3000 before the tyros got it, and Audio to USB device came out on the PSR-S900,,,the S910 has an MP3 player, that is not on the T3, but will surely be on the Tyros4.

Arrangers don't have to be on the same cutting edge as computers, but they usually aren't far behind.

BTW...I played the new Nord C2....pretty impressive...the Leslie sim is one of the very best...I used it on a little jam session we had at one of the stores after hours....what a hoot it was.

If they could put a PSR-S910 arranger engine in it, it would be my next board for sure.

Ian